Ho et al. (2019), "Moving beyond P values: data analysis with estimation graphics"
Ho et al. (2019), "Moving beyond P values: data analysis with estimation graphics", Nature Methods 16:565-566 (15 min)
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
WEEK 30 · Mon 12 Apr → Sun 18 Apr 2027
UNDERSTAND · PRACTICE · KEEP EVIDENCE
Read the week in plain language, refresh the foundations, follow each challenge step by step, and check what evidence to keep. Includes worked examples, answer keys and prompts for visual study resources.
Use this within your existing weekly blocks. Your learning completion and research evidence remain in your current tracker and week files.
START HERE · 2 MINUTES
STATUS
| Deliverable | Acceptance | State |
|---|---|---|
audit-final-readout.mdBuild create + |
Complete the audit's three prioritized automation candidates with measured baseline, estimated days saved, uncertainty, cost assumptions and owner. Acceptance: Complete the contracted audit readout or documented delivery recovery, and preserve any received partner data with provenance. | |
paper-3-validation-results.mdBuild create + |
Analyze received wet-lab data against the preregistered plan with controls and biological replicate counts; use a computational-only analysis if no data arrived. Acceptance: Observed versus predicted outcomes and deviations are separate. | |
case-study-draft.mdBuild create + |
Prepare the anonymized case-study draft and Paper 3 figures; audit residual delivery work and author review dates. Acceptance: Client claims trace to evidence; publication permission is requested separately. | |
study-notes.mdLearning create + |
Selected exact free resources; bounded lesson/exercise; separate solution; quiz and grading rubric; Peter's answers and gaps when executed | |
founder-paper.mdFounder papers create + |
Verified source and P11 digest; authentic question and connection sentence; access limitations | |
branding-pack.mdBranding create + |
Wednesday note, Sunday build log, X adaptation, figure/caption/alt text and the week's special asset; each claim linked to real proof | |
opportunity-actions.mdOpportunities create + |
Qualified target/role, source/date, ladder stage, next action, message/interview/proposal draft and actual status | |
evidence.mdEvidence & review open & edit ↗ |
Actual paths/URLs, versions, checks/metrics, preparation versus execution state and external receipts when applicable | |
review.mdEvidence & review open & edit ↗ |
Checklist, learning assessment, gate status, shortfalls, next actions and carryover |
These filenames are outputs to prepare during this week's execution; this scaffold does not claim they already exist. Drafts and measured results have different states. Technical code/data stay in the canonical project repository and are referenced from these coordinating files.
During preparation, future measured tables get column definitions, input requirements and run instructions with PENDING status. During execution, replace pending values only with measured outputs. Do not create realistic-looking fake evidence.
600 MINUTES MAXIMUM
Target. Complete the audit's three prioritized automation candidates with measured baseline, estimated days saved, uncertainty, cost assumptions and owner. Stop when: Complete the contracted audit readout or documented delivery recovery, and preserve any received partner data with provenance.
No material for Monday — this is a pure build day. Need something to study instead? →
Target. Revisit MSMB/ISLP bootstrap and small-sample inference; define the actual biological unit and descriptive limits of partner assays. Produce: One concise applied note, a worked decision/example and unresolved questions.
Do these in this order — the plan's own sequence:
Target. Analyze received wet-lab data against the preregistered plan with controls and biological replicate counts; use a computational-only analysis if no data arrived. Stop when: Observed versus predicted outcomes and deviations are separate. Reserve the last 10 minutes for the optional Wednesday note.
No material for Wednesday — this is a pure build day. Need something to study instead? →
Target. Apply the preregistered analysis to received data and reconcile audit delivery evidence; no new course. Relevant partner paper within remaining time. Apply the Half 2 one-formal-study-block rule.
No material for Thursday — this is a pure build day. Need something to study instead? →
Target. Prepare the anonymized case-study draft and Paper 3 figures; audit residual delivery work and author review dates. Stop when: Client claims trace to evidence; publication permission is requested separately.
No material for Friday — this is a pure build day. Need something to study instead? →
Target. Resolve the earliest critical spillover or dependency. Prepare any long-form publication draft from existing figures here if needed. Sandbox only after commitments are met.
Optional, only if the day went well:
Target. 20 min build-log draft/publication when authorized; 5 min evidence/checklist; 20 min source-grounded gap review; 15 min next week's six physical actions.
No material for Sunday — this is a pure build day. Need something to study instead? →
Spare pockets, repo exercises and anything the plan lists without a day. Take them in this order when a day finishes early.
The model must turn these into exact physical actions using the observed files and available inputs. Each 90-minute block includes start/stop rituals. All calls, posts, debugging, reading and exercises consume this same capacity.
Half 2: Tuesday is the formal study block unless this is a selling/submission/decision week. Thursday supports applied review, partner work or the market task; do not add another full course.
WHAT TO WATCH, READ AND RUN
Two deliveries meet this week, and they rhyme. For the client, you close the audit with a readout and an anonymised case study (with permission). For the partner, you open the envelope: the wet-lab results for your candidates, analysed exactly as pre-registered in week 24. Small numbers of samples need special care: with three replicates, one outlier can create or destroy a "finding". Think of a restaurant with thre…
0 of 10 finished · give me one to start now → · open in the deck →
In the plan's running order: each card says which block it belongs to and what has to come before it. The seven-day plan lists the same cards under the day that owns them.
Ho et al. (2019), "Moving beyond P values: data analysis with estimation graphics", Nature Methods 16:565-566 (15 min)
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
Tuesday · after Ho et al. (2019), "Moving beyond P values: data analysis with estimation graphics"
Cumming (2014) "The new statistics" (carry over), sections on small samples (30 min)
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
Tuesday · after Cumming (2014) "The new statistics"
StatQuest "Statistical Power" (carry over)
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
Saturday sandbox
Vaux, Fidler & Cumming (2012), "Replicates and repeats—what is the difference and is it significant?", EMBO Reports 13:291-296
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
Saturday sandbox · after Vaux, Fidler & Cumming (2012), "Replicates and repeats—what is the difference and is it signific…
Coursera Introduction to Statistics (Stanford), module on small-sample inference
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
Weissgerber et al. (2015), "Beyond bar and line graphs: time for a new data presentation paradigm", PLoS Biology 13(4):e1002128 (20 min)
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
Estimation plots (Gardner-Altman) for measured activity vs control; the library from Ho et al. 2019
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
Strip plots with every replicate over the predicted ranking
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
If you fit a small Bayesian model, plot posteriors per candidate
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
Run the frozen week 24 analysis script on the real data, unchanged
In: LABLOOP-W30 Notebook
READ FIRST
This week delivers the three concrete artifacts below and the supporting learning/branding/opportunity pack. The scientific or commercial outcome follows the preserved source brief, while the acceptance checks make its evidence testable. The career objective is to turn this work into something a scientist, hiring manager or buyer can inspect.
READ FIRST
Read v6 · Week 30 · Audit delivery 2; Paper 3 results before Monday. It expands this week's one-row v5 brief into daily build steps and adds the Welcome analogy, Learn it (▶ core and + deeper sources), Run it (repos with a 20-40 minute exercise), the NotebookLM kit and the mentor check below. Standing v6 rules: resource rules, NotebookLM protocol, chapter anatomy. v6 adds depth only; it does not change a goal, gate, output or the 600-minute cap, so this specification still governs execution.
Act VI · Threads: M, $, EL · Next gate: 32
Where this week sits. - ← From: week 24 pre-registration, week 28 raw results, week 29 audit. - → Feeds: week 31 (Paper 3 draft), week 32 (preprint + case study), week 38 (talk), week 39 (fund package uses the case study). - ⟳ Returns in: L4 co-authored and the commercial proof of Act VI.
Goals. - 🎯 This week: audit final readout; anonymised case study drafted; partner validation analysed per plan; Paper 3 figures. - 🏁 Next milestone: Gate 32. - 🌟 Final: Paper 3 with real validation and a public case study.
The plan (from v5 Part 7, expanded; gate and output unchanged).
v5 row: 30 | Audit delivery 2; Paper 3 results | Statistics for validation results (small n) | Analysis of the partner's validation; figures | Anonymized case study drafted - Goal: two honest reports: one for the client, one for science. - Tue (study): statistics for small n: estimation plots, bootstrap limits with n = 3, why to show every point. - Build: Mon: audit readout delivered; three candidates with days saved; client feedback captured; case-study permission asked. Wed: validation analysis exactly as in
PREREGISTRATION.md; deviations from the plan listed explicitly. Done when every pre-registered analysis has a result. Fri: Paper 3 figures (predicted vs measured, per candidate, all replicates shown); case study draft (anonymised). - Sun: L-Sun only with permissions; otherwise "what a pre-registration felt like when the data arrived". - Only one thing: the pre-registered analysis run.
Mentor check. "I can show whether my predictions held in a real lab, with every replicate visible, and I delivered a client readout the same week."
OPEN WHEN NEEDED
READ FIRST
Material: Revisit MSMB/ISLP bootstrap and small-sample inference; define the actual biological unit and descriptive limits of partner assays.
Produce: One concise applied note, a worked decision/example and unresolved questions.
Understanding check: The note directly supports this week's experiment, collaboration, delivery or career action.
During preparation, write one worked example connected to the week's actual task, one exercise with a separate answer key and five questions. Peter supplies answers; score explanation quality and flag misconceptions in QUESTIONS. Numeric/scientific conclusions require actual data or explicitly synthetic teaching values.
Material: Apply the preregistered analysis to received data and reconcile audit delivery evidence; no new course. Relevant partner paper within remaining time.
Produce: One concise applied note, a worked decision/example and unresolved questions.
Understanding check: The note directly supports this week's experiment, collaboration, delivery or career action.
Use the prompt pack: P1 explanation ladder, P2 concept-to-project bridge and P3 quiz. Coding practice belongs within the allocated study/build block. Where the source asks for a favorable scientific result, substitute an honest measured comparison as explained below.
Select one verified founder/scientific-lead paper relevant to this week's domain. Use P11; save the question, method, numerical result with context, data workflow, three author questions and one connection sentence in founder-paper.md. Keep abstract-only access limitations explicit. On source weeks with no study, prioritize the commercial/submission task and log any skipped digest.
OPEN WHEN NEEDED
Branding: Draft an audit lesson and validation figure summary; client-specific publication remains contingent on permission.
Opportunity action: Prepare a second-audit or pilot next step from actual findings; ask for publishable feedback only after delivery.
Use career asset contracts. Publish at most the agreed cadence; one figure and one supported number or admitted failure can support multiple drafts. In long-form weeks, prepare a 1,500–2,500-word article from existing evidence within the build/buffer allocation. In release/demo weeks, prepare a 60-second script: problem, input, command/action, result, limitation and proof link.
Verify individuals, jobs and affiliations at execution time. The GridX list and v4 company map are research seeds, not current facts. Do not reveal named company weaknesses or employer/client confidential information. Keep drafted/sent/replied/booked/held statuses separate. The planning request alone does not authorize external messages or publication; honor explicit authorization in the execution session.
OPEN WHEN NEEDED
Do not force wet-lab results to arrive on schedule. Two major workstreams compete for capacity; prioritize contracted obligations and record research slippage rather than inventing closure.
Apply the root scientific evidence contract: provenance; meaningful independent splits; no future-data leakage; baseline comparison; actual denominators/uncertainty; failed cases; human review where required. State whether data are simulated, public experimental, synthetic or partner-provided.
Keep source gates intact, and log scope/time conflicts in review. Missing people, money, access or results must not be replaced with invented evidence. Reduce optional polish first. A specific essential external dependency stays pending while independent preparation continues.
READ FIRST
This is an enabling week. Its deliverables feed the next scheduled gate: 32. Complete the acceptance checklist below; do not promote reputation from a draft.
READ FIRST
Expanded minimum derived from the source goal: Complete the contracted audit readout or documented delivery recovery, and preserve any received partner data with provenance.
Operational first step if stalled: open audit-final-readout.md, write the required inputs and produce the smallest checkable example in ten minutes. If a more urgent missing gate dependency controls the week, use the source minimum above.
If the full week does not fit, use P14: retain one gate-critical deliverable and one directly supporting study exercise; record what is skipped versus moved. Do not mark the original full gate passed merely because the minimum was completed. After a missed week, reforecast from actual evidence and avoid a second unexamined lost week.
OPEN WHEN NEEDED
In review, state exactly what exists, what was verified, what Peter can now explain, which external events remain pending, where the canonical code/data live, and the next file/function or draft paragraph to touch. Link each fact to evidence. Carry scientific assumptions, split definitions and rights constraints forward explicitly.
OPEN WHEN NEEDED
Prepare Week 30 of this LABLOOP execution plan.
Read execution-plan/specs.md, execution-plan/DECISIONS.md,
execution-plan/GATES.md and
execution-plan/weeks/week-30-audit-readout-and-validation-results/specs.md, commitment.md, evidence.md and review.md.
Read prior prerequisite reviews and inspect actual repository/data state.
Use v5 as the governing sequence, the v6 Week 30 chapter
(LABLOOP-Master-Plan-v6.md) as the deeper walkthrough, and v4 only for
retained details.
Produce the full local preparation pack and the exact week-specific files named
in the artifact table. Give me a bounded lesson with exercises/answer key,
daily physical actions, technical runbook or draft, branding drafts and
career/commercial actions. Keep the total to 600 minutes.
Separate prepared artifacts from measured results and my learning completion.
Verify sources and do not invent metrics, citations, papers, people or outcomes.
Do not execute external communications, publication or spending unless the
current session already authorizes the specific action.
Finish by updating evidence/review and TODAY with the next physical action.
OPEN WHEN NEEDED
v6 expands this row into a full brief, with the gate and output unchanged, inside v6 · Week 30 · Audit delivery 2; Paper 3 results. The following is source planning text, not a claim of completion. Apply the explicit evidence corrections in this specification and DECISIONS.md.
| Week | Goal | Study (Tue) | Build (Mon/Wed/Fri) | Output |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Audit delivery 2; Paper 3 results | Statistics for validation results (small n) | Analysis of the partner's validation; figures | Anonymized case study drafted |
WEEK FILES
State: UNCONFIRMED. Owner: Peter Ciancaglini. Specification
Start date: not set. End date: not set. Available hours: confirm (planned ceiling 10). Primary outcome: audit readout and validation results. Minimum that keeps the next gate alive: Complete the contracted audit readout or documented delivery recovery, and preserve any received partner data with provenance.
audit-final-readout.md: Complete the contracted audit readout or documented delivery recovery, and preserve any received partner data with provenance.paper-3-validation-results.md: Observed versus predicted outcomes and deviations are separate.case-study-draft.md: Client claims trace to evidence; publication permission is requested separately.| Day | Minutes | Physical action / outcome | Actual slot | Done |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon | 90 | Complete the audit's three prioritized automation candidates with measured baseline, estimated days saved, uncertainty, cost assumptions and owner. | Not set | ☐ |
| Tue | 90 | One concise applied note, a worked decision/example and unresolved questions. | Not set | ☐ |
| Wed | 90 | Analyze received wet-lab data against the preregistered plan with controls and biological replicate counts; use a computational-only analysis if no data arrived. Last ten minutes: optional note. | Not set | ☐ |
| Thu | 90 | One concise applied note, a worked decision/example and unresolved questions. Include relevant founder-paper work within this block. | Not set | ☐ |
| Fri | 90 | Prepare the anonymized case-study draft and Paper 3 figures; audit residual delivery work and author review dates. | Not set | ☐ |
| Sat | 90 | Resolve critical spillover; long-form draft if due; sandbox only if done. | Not set | ☐ |
| Sun | 60 | Build log, evidence, gap review, next actions. | Not set | ☐ |
Peter's commitment / adjustments: pending. Reviewing model and date: pending.
Execution state: NOT_STARTED. Specification This file is a blank register with planned artifact names; none of the rows prove completion.
| Item | Path / URL / version | State | Verification / actual result | Verified by / date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| audit-final-readout.md | Not created | NOT_STARTED | Pending: Client acceptance and any remaining prototype limits are recorded. | — |
| paper-3-validation-results.md | Not created | NOT_STARTED | Pending: Observed versus predicted outcomes and deviations are separate. | — |
| case-study-draft.md | Not created | NOT_STARTED | Pending: Client claims trace to evidence; publication permission is requested separately. | — |
| Learning exercise / Peter's quiz | Not created | NOT_STARTED | Peter's actual answers required | — |
| Founder paper digest | Not created | NOT_STARTED | Source/content and access checked | — |
| Branding pack | Not created | NOT_STARTED | Claims audited; drafted/public status distinct | — |
| Opportunity actions | Not created | NOT_STARTED | Drafted/sent/replied/booked/held distinct | — |
| Question / metric | Dataset, N and unit | Split / seed / config | Command or verification method | Output path and measured value | Uncertainty / limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Action / counterpart | Receipt or private reference | State | Next action / date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Peter's teach-back / quiz score: not assessed. Scientific assumptions and deviations: none recorded yet. Budget allocated / spent: not assessed / no spend recorded. Missing evidence and responsible owner: pending inspection.
Do not put API keys, source full texts with restricted rights, client data or invoice personal details in a public version of this register. Keep private evidence references private.
Review status: NOT_REVIEWED. Specification · Evidence
What Peter can explain or reproduce now: not assessed. Quiz / teach-back gaps: not assessed. Measured result and limitations: pending. Best evidence link for a scientist/recruiter/buyer: pending. What failed or changed, and why: pending.
Gate requirement: No standalone gate; check this week's acceptance criteria and next gate dependencies. Gate status: NOT_STARTED. Original target week: See next gate in specs. Actual completion date / forecast: not set. Missing external evidence: pending inspection. Blocks completed / 7: not recorded. Days with commits / 7: not recorded. Sunday build log / optional Wednesday note: not recorded. Founder conversations cumulative: not recorded. Earned evidence level and proof: not assessed. Consecutive lost weeks: not assessed.
Week-specific risk to revisit: Do not force wet-lab results to arrive on schedule. Two major workstreams compete for capacity; prioritize contracted obligations and record research slippage rather than inventing closure.
Continue / recover / blocked: not decided. Retain as the minimum: Complete the contracted audit readout or documented delivery recovery, and preserve any received partner data with provenance. Skipped permanently with reason: none recorded. Carryover with owner, dependency and target week: none recorded. Canonical repository paths and versions: pending. Data permissions, split definitions or assumptions to preserve: pending. External action authorization that still applies: not assessed. Next physical action, exact file/function/paragraph: pending. Updates to root PROGRESS / LOG / TODAY completed: ☐
YOUR SPACE